World Cup 2026 – 23/06/26

After yesterday's profitable card, today's slate is much more difficult.

The bookmakers have priced the favourites extremely short, and from a value perspective there is very little that interests me on the outright markets.

Rather than forcing selections on teams trading at very low prices, I've focused on specific player involvement markets and situations where match context could create opportunities.

🇵🇹 Portugql vs Uzbekistan

Portugal to Win + Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shot on Target

Stake: £30 (3% Bankroll)

This is not a bet on Portugal being brilliant.

It's a bet on Portugal eventually finding a way through.

Uzbekistan will know a draw keeps their hopes alive, so they are unlikely to take many risks.

Portugal should dominate territory and possession, and if they are to progress comfortably towards the knockout stages, Bruno Fernandes is likely to be one of the key contributors.

Combining a Portugal victory with a Fernandes shot on target offers a stronger angle than backing Portugal alone at very short odds.

🏴 England vs Ghana

Jude Bellingham Over 2.5 Shots

Stake: £40 (4% Bankroll)

This is the game that interests me most tactically.

For several weeks I've had the feeling Ghana could cause a major surprise in this group.

Many Ghanaian players play their football in England. This fixture has been circled on their calendar since the draw was made.

The motivation level will be enormous.

England won their opening game, but I wasn't particularly impressed by the defensive performance. The back line looked vulnerable at times and the goalkeeping display raised more questions than answers.

At prices around 1.18 for an England victory, I simply don't see enough value.

Jude Bellingham, however, continues to be one of England's most important attacking weapons.

He averages around three shots per game across his last five appearances and has the confidence to shoot from distance when teams defend deep.

If Ghana remain compact and difficult to break down, Bellingham's willingness to test the goalkeeper from range could become a major factor.

🇨🇴 Colombia vs DR Congo

Luis Díaz Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Stake: £30 (3% Bankroll)

This is the highest-risk selection on today's card, but also arguably the biggest price.

DR Congo gained confidence from frustrating Portugal and will likely approach this match with a similar defensive mindset.

However, Colombia possess more direct attacking threats, and Luis Díaz is undoubtedly the focal point.

He constantly attacks defenders, cuts inside to shoot and rarely hides during big matches.

If Colombia dominate possession as expected, Díaz should see enough volume to give this line a realistic chance.

At 3.75, the risk is reflected in the price.

Today's Card

🇵🇹 Portugal to Win + Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shot on Target — 3% Bankroll

🏴 Jude Bellingham Over 2.5 Shots — 4% Bankroll

🇨🇴 Luis Díaz Over 1.5 Shots on Target — 3% Bankroll

Total Exposure

10% of bankroll

As always, the focus remains on finding value rather than forcing selections because matches are on the schedule.

Good luck and enjoy the football.

Analyse • Focus • Execute